Sunday, February 21, 2010

Ron Paul wins conservative presidential straw poll

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), who garnered a small, but energetic grass roots movement of supporters from both sides of the isle during the previous presidential primaries, may have just taken a step closer to being the front runner for the 2012 nomination, after winning a landslide victory in the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on Saturday.

Paul, a libertarian and foe of government spending, captured 31 percent of the 2,400 votes cast in the annual contest, which is supposed to show how the GOP's conservative wing regards their potential presidential candidates. Mitt Romney finished second with 22 percent of the vote, Sarah Palin finished third with seven percent of the vote and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty finished fourth with six percent of the vote. Five percent of participants voted for "other" and six percent were undecided.

It has been reported that the announcement of Paul's victory drew loud boos from the right-wing audience, which represented their discontent with the field as a majority of participants said they wished the party had a better field of candidates to choose from.

Paul's victory, however, may have had a lot to do with young voters as 54 percent of the polls voters were between the ages of 18 and 24. Tea Partiers were also represented at the conference in strong numbers, and their resistance to mainstream Republican candidates may have also helped push Paul to victory.

Even with Paul's victory in the poll, it is unlikely that the libertarian hero would actually win the Republican nomination for president in 2012, especially considering his liberal stance against the war in Iraq, his rejection of a possible military confrontation with Iran and his noninterventionist view on foreign policy. However, his strong views on cutting spending and reducing the size of government could score him major points with Tea Party activists and Independents who lean farther to the right on social issues like gay marriage, abortion and health care. While liberals and Democrats don't want to lose the oval office in the next election, Paul would to some degree be a breath of fresh air in regards to a Republican candidate - who are usually so far to the right it is hard to find any common ground with the nominee.

In the end, the poll is just another reminder that Republicans have virtually no candidates to run in the 2012 election. A recent Gallup Poll shows President Obama slightly leading the Republican candidate in the 2012 election, 44 percent to 42 percent. However, this type of poll does not factor in how the nation will perceive the Republican candidate after all the vetting by the media and public has been completed, while it does consider these factors in Obama's case. For instance, if Ron Paul was to win the Republican nomination he would have to explain why he voted against the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Paul has defended such a decision in  previous statements, but it would become a whole new animal if he won the nomination, not to mention he would have to deal with any embarrassing personal issues that could be lurking in his past, which is something no presidential candidate can avoid in today's politics.

Either way, if the Republicans intend to regain control of the oval office in the next election they will certainly have to find the kind of candidate that can not only energize their own base, but also the Independent base - which seems to be harder and harder for them as the nation moves more to the left on social issues that Republicans continue to resist.

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